Update on the 40 point thingy.........

I made the following post a month ago suggesting its unlikley we would need 40 points to stay up this season.

User Posted Link

Just thought I would update it based on the latest Prediction Table of Tilt and how it compares to last season after 17 games were played.

QPR 41 Blackburn 47
WBA 38 Aston Villa 45
Fulham 38 Everton 40
Wolves 35 Brum 40
wigan 30 Fulham 36
Sunderland 30 Wigan 36
Blackburn 27 Wolves 34
Bolton 23 West Ham 27

It should be obvious that the bottom 8 teams are still on pace for a much lower average points total this season.

To need 40 points it would require a pretty large shift in the form of the PL where the majority of clubs in the bottom 8 start picking up points at a much higher rate.

To get a more accurate estimate of each teams points total you have to estimate their probability of points in each individual game based on strength of opposition and venue.

Its also worth mentioning that points totals vary slightly in an upward bias for the relegation battling teams.
(meaning their points totals will have a higher probability of being higher than lower)

Bottom line I still predict it will only take 33-37 points to stay up this season.

My personal estimate is 36 points based on strength of shedules, which is slightly higher than the average figure.

Posted By: usacanary, Dec 21, 16:16:07