That doesn't take into account the identity of the candidates

I think anyone with even a small proportion of a brain would recognise that Burnham has some popularity in Greater Manchester. How much it will affect the vote in a by-election, no-one knows. But we do know that that website takes no account of it.

Posted By: Tricky Hawes on May 14th 2026 at 20:19:12

Message Thread

Andy ! Andy ! Andy ! (n/m) (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, May 14, 17:24:10
- News just in, Raynor was spotted in Streeting’s bushes with a pair of binoculars…. (n/m) (General Chat) - Augustus Pablo, May 14, 18:56:23
  - Can people please refrain from posting rumours regarding anyone's private life (n/m) (General Chat) - BSE Canary, May 14, 18:59:50
- Just wrong to be able to stand down like this (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 17:27:11
  - It's the news that will save the nation (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 17:34:45
    - Luke Tryl has him as (slight) favourite. (n/m) (General Chat) - Snakepit Divorceee, May 14, 19:17:14
    - Parody account 🤣 (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, May 14, 18:18:31
      - Racist cunt 🤣 (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 18:19:35
        
        Innit. (n/m) (General Chat) - Snakepit Divorceee, May 14, 18:46:28
    - Cant see him winning in that seat. I think reform won all the wards there just last week (General Chat) - shoddy, May 14, 18:04:13
      - Latest prediction 98.7% ANDY ANDY ANDY (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:31:25
      - Latest prediction 45.3% Reform 24.9% Labour 13.9% Green (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, May 14, 18:17:10
        
        Where is everyone pulling these numbers from? (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 18:18:46
        
        Available stats (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, May 15, 00:17:04
        
        Objective data (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, May 14, 20:28:21
        
        see that hat? that old one over there, yes, on the table by the beer mats? (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 18:20:50
        
        😄 (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 18:33:09
      - Nah everyone loves Labour (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 18:05:47
        
        well obviously. (n/m) (General Chat) - shoddy, May 14, 18:07:15
        
        Surprised you missed it tbh (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 18:08:59
    - He wont win the by election haha (n/m) (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, May 14, 18:00:31
      - Back again? (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 18:04:18
      - BMTP (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:03:05
    - Not an easy win. Reform just won all the local seats in that area and were 2nd at GE (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, May 14, 17:43:58
      - Burnham is very popular up there though (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:00:24
        
        I can smell the stories not fielding a candidate (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, May 14, 18:06:07
        
        Tories obvs (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, May 14, 18:06:17
        
        Certainly be a fun by election (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:15:33
        
        curiosity, got the better of me... (General Chat) - Tombs, May 14, 18:53:00
        
        lol (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 20:32:36
        
        That would never happen (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 18:06:55
        
        burnham would make the labour party happier, but (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 18:16:04
        
        He’s the guy who said we should stop worrying about the bond market (General Chat) - Old Git, May 14, 18:26:36
        
        whichever way you look at this all, its a mess. (n/m) (General Chat) - shoddy, May 14, 18:34:55
        
        tbf i haven't been worrying about it at all (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, May 14, 18:30:01
        
        Bond markets keep me up at night (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:35:11
        
        They should (General Chat) - Old Git, May 14, 18:50:55
        
        He never said the bond market doesn't matter (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 19:01:17
        
        Telegraph gonna Telegraph (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 19:55:23
        
        Keep taking the Copium Gareth (General Chat) - Old Git, May 14, 20:27:20
        
        But a massive fucking tory either way (n/m) (General Chat) - Cable Gap Pioneer, May 14, 21:04:48
        
        Well, thank you for your contribution, Mr Pioneer. (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 21:20:24
        
        I'm happy to go with the graun in this occasion old bean (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 20:24:33
        
        Astonishing ability to rewrite history (General Chat) - Old Git, May 14, 20:29:56
        
        Mate, I'm a macroeconomist (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:27:37
        
        Not a very good one though (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, May 14, 23:58:51
        
        He said this (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 20:47:50
        
        Yes, I well know what he said (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:53:17
        
        Well, I suspect he'll have plenty of opportunity to explain himself (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 20:58:05
        
        Indeed so. (n/m) (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:58:56
        
        Economists are generally full of shit (General Chat) - phrankin, May 14, 22:31:47
        
        Still better than uneconomists though. (n/m) (General Chat) - Augustus Pablo, May 14, 23:16:43
        
        interest on gov borrowing presently costs more than all but one department (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 19:00:28
        
        they might do one day (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 18:48:15
        
        they really won't 😄 (General Chat) - Tombs, May 14, 19:02:55
        
        probably literally as well, tbf (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 19:04:14
        
        i'll turn down the opportunity to stress test that theory thanks (General Chat) - Tombs, May 14, 19:07:18
        
        You can’t beat Roger Moore’s eyebrow (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 18:47:04
        
        i know sean connery is widely considered to be the best but i did like pierce brosnans (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, May 14, 18:38:53
        
        quite (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, May 14, 18:29:06
      - and 87% chance of winning the seat .... (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, May 14, 17:53:46
        
        Both around evens in the early betting (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 18:07:09
        
        wanna bet on that? (n/m) (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:23:53
        
        Source? (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 17:57:08
        
        here .... (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, May 14, 19:05:31
        
        👍 (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 19:14:20
        
        That doesn't take into account the identity of the candidates (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:19:12
        
        Yep (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 21:13:29
        
        how could it .... (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, May 14, 21:07:49
        
        VMT (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 14, 20:51:55
        
        (so anyone who asserts Reform have an 80% chance of taking the seat now (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, May 14, 20:22:59
        
        i take it that was a dig at me ... (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, May 14, 21:09:29
    - Around 11/10 for next Labour leader (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 17:42:24
      - Which is basically the same (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 17:46:29
    - 13/5 favourite to be next PM (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 17:41:34
      - That must be out of date now (General Chat) - SCC 28, May 14, 17:44:56
        
        👍🏻 (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, May 14, 17:46:23

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