Betting question - are long terms bets now bad value?

I generally do quite a lot of long term bets, usually on politics and season long City bets. But is this bad value now?

Following yesterdays thread on Ipswich being 13-1 for the title, I considered laying them vs some small bets on city/leeds to win. But at 13-1 you are getting only a payback of annualised 9%ish. but you can chuck money in a savings account for 9 month lockups for 5% now, so you are only making 4% profit on that lay but taking risk of losing 13x your stake. What's the point? If you lay anyone at 20-1 for 9 months you are worse off than the bank, AND taking loads of risk. So it's stupid. What am I missing here?

Posted By: fal5taff on August 8th 2023 at 06:15:10

Message Thread

Betting question - are long terms bets now bad value? (Betting) - fal5taff, Aug 8, 06:15:10
- Mostly as the vig of the overall market is normally terrible. (n/m) (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 14:33:36
- Long term big odds lays yeah (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Aug 8, 08:14:37
- Yes (Betting) - Cardiff Canary, Aug 8, 07:13:28
  - There's now too much data in their favour. (Betting) - trafford_canary, Aug 8, 10:49:05
    - This is where you might find edges... (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 15:27:50
  - Poor value bets are poor value (Betting) - SCC 28, Aug 8, 08:12:31
    - no such thing as a good value bet (Betting) - Cardiff Canary, Aug 8, 09:02:32
      - You are 100% wrong. (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 15:36:39
        
        I think I do understand (Betting) - Cardiff Canary, Aug 8, 16:21:37
        
        "Beating the bookies/casinos consistently? Nah." (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 17:38:15
        
        Making 6 7 8 figures is definitely possible (Betting) - Cardiff Canary, Aug 8, 18:20:25
        
        And to be clear, I know it's possible to find an edge (Betting) - Cardiff Canary, Aug 8, 18:29:51
      - Norwich not to get promoted last season was good value (Betting) - SCC 28, Aug 8, 09:24:02
  - Mug’s game (n/m) (Betting) - Augustus Pablo, Aug 8, 07:21:24
    - Only if you are a mug, there is an easy test to prove this. (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 14:35:04
    - You never see a bookmaker riding a bike (Betting) - Chris Peacock, Aug 8, 07:29:03
      - Don’t bet with bookies then (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Aug 8, 08:12:50
      - Or a farmer (n/m) (Betting) - Augustus Pablo, Aug 8, 07:47:28
        
        Youi don't see many bookies riding a tractor..... (n/m) (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 15:37:58
- the thrill of winning the bet (Betting) - ghostof barry butler, Aug 8, 06:55:48
  - You probably thought voting for Brexit was fun (n/m) (Betting) - ChampsChamps2023, Aug 8, 21:05:18
  - You don't think it's fun to outsmart the bookies/casinos. (Betting) - usacanary, Aug 8, 14:40:32
  - When the fun stops, etc (n/m) (Betting) - Augustus Pablo, Aug 8, 06:59:39

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