Thats the amazing thing about sportbetting.......

You can actually prove if your opinions are correct.

As noted feel free to go on to Betfair and offer 20 to 1 and Im sure you will get a ton of action.

I mean seriously.....
If you could find bets that have a 1% probability when the market is at 11-14% probability..... you could print money.

Good luck with that.

Posted By: usacanary on March 28th 2023 at 18:18:57

Message Thread

The math(s) of a possible NCFC promotion (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:10:05
- If we carry on at 1.75 ppg (NCFC) - paulg, Mar 28, 22:22:21
- Interesting post, cheers 👍🏻 (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Mar 28, 20:07:57
- Oooh. Tell me how you ran your Monte Carlo analysis (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Mar 28, 19:56:18
- So after all that guff, the bookies have it right which is no surprise to anybody. (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Mar 28, 19:13:37
  - The markets have over rated us all season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 19:27:45
- Fewer (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Mar 28, 19:11:01
- Anything north of 7/1 feels quite attractive... (n/m) (NCFC) - MonkeyPuzzle, Mar 28, 18:06:46
  - Mikey says its 1% which means he could offer you 90/1 and still have an edge. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:12:18
    - More of an edge laying on betfair tbf (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:15:08
      - You can become the bookie on betfair and offer what you like. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:21:37
        
        You appear to think Norwich knowledge (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:28:18
        
        Athletes/"experts" are known as the worlds worst sports bettors. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:40:20
        
        You totally misread what I wrote 🙈 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:52:34
- Something inside hasn't written it or yet. (NCFC) - ParrotPuncher, Mar 28, 17:55:13
- 1% chance of promotion by my calculations (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 17:29:17
  - Mikey, the market is 7 to 1.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:46:10
    - Norwich is a very niche market sadly (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:04:21
      - Thats the amazing thing about sportbetting....... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:18:57
        
        Which nobody has said they could (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:23:54
        
        Can we add this to the "Mikey List" of things you are unqualified to talk about. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:44:30
        
        Are you ok? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:53:04
        
        Annie (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Mar 28, 20:03:45
        
        But you said the odds were 1% by your "calculations" (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:38:29
        
        Yes I have a huge edge on this market (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:53:33
- So agonisingly close (NCFC) - CWC, Mar 28, 17:18:59
  - Yeh, its super close and TBF.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:24:31
    - Can’t play bang average teams nearly every week (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 17:28:16
      - We can, we're in the Championship (NCFC) - Adster, Mar 28, 17:42:55

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