The math(s) of a possible NCFC promotion

8 games left = 24 points to play for.

Currently have 57 points

last 7 years the average points needed to make the top 6 is 72.42 points.

Lets look at the distribution.
69 or less points 0%
70 or less points 14.2%
71 or less points 57.1%
72 or less points 57.1%
73 or less points 57.1%
74 or less points 85.7%
75 or less points 85.7%
76 or less points 100%

2 PPG will get us to exactly 73 points
Our season average PPG is 1.5
Our PPG average under Wagner is 1.75

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation based on the remaining games (and the relative strength of the opponents)
and came up with 68.79 points
Considering our current odds of promotion are around 7/1 (probably closer to 9/1 real odds with the huge vig added)
Lets be generous and give us a 30% chance of promotion if we make the playoffs.(these would be close to the odds because if we do make the playoffs we would need a huge run of good form to get there)
The true odds the market is giving for Norwich to make the playoffs is around 36%
I have it slightly less at 28% (small samples and data sets so its not really that different)

Anyway here is the TLDR...

Will we make the playoffs.... probably not.

Will we get promoted?
User Posted Link

Posted By: usacanary on March 28th 2023 at 17:10:05

Message Thread

The math(s) of a possible NCFC promotion (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:10:05
- If we carry on at 1.75 ppg (NCFC) - paulg, Mar 28, 22:22:21
- Interesting post, cheers 👍🏻 (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Mar 28, 20:07:57
- Oooh. Tell me how you ran your Monte Carlo analysis (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Mar 28, 19:56:18
- So after all that guff, the bookies have it right which is no surprise to anybody. (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Mar 28, 19:13:37
  - The markets have over rated us all season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 19:27:45
- Fewer (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Mar 28, 19:11:01
- Anything north of 7/1 feels quite attractive... (n/m) (NCFC) - MonkeyPuzzle, Mar 28, 18:06:46
  - Mikey says its 1% which means he could offer you 90/1 and still have an edge. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:12:18
    - More of an edge laying on betfair tbf (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:15:08
      - You can become the bookie on betfair and offer what you like. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:21:37
        
        You appear to think Norwich knowledge (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:28:18
        
        Athletes/"experts" are known as the worlds worst sports bettors. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:40:20
        
        You totally misread what I wrote 🙈 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:52:34
- Something inside hasn't written it or yet. (NCFC) - ParrotPuncher, Mar 28, 17:55:13
- 1% chance of promotion by my calculations (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 17:29:17
  - Mikey, the market is 7 to 1.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:46:10
    - Norwich is a very niche market sadly (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:04:21
      - Thats the amazing thing about sportbetting....... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:18:57
        
        Which nobody has said they could (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:23:54
        
        Can we add this to the "Mikey List" of things you are unqualified to talk about. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:44:30
        
        Are you ok? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:53:04
        
        Annie (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Mar 28, 20:03:45
        
        But you said the odds were 1% by your "calculations" (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 18:38:29
        
        Yes I have a huge edge on this market (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 18:53:33
- So agonisingly close (NCFC) - CWC, Mar 28, 17:18:59
  - Yeh, its super close and TBF.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 28, 17:24:31
    - Can’t play bang average teams nearly every week (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 28, 17:28:16
      - We can, we're in the Championship (NCFC) - Adster, Mar 28, 17:42:55

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