think this is prob the last of these due to circs but fwiw...

Muppet (Lavrov) apparently had vodkas, and the morning after sat in the sun without drinking water.
That combined with his valve problem... basically dehydration. So, it is on in 3.5 hours.
It will be fun listening in at two masters of diplomacy have at it.

My role is mostly over, I explained the military technical details, and if there is any need for any military lingo explained I can brief in the earplug. At least I get to listen in.
I have not a rats bone how either of the 3 will play this.

Anyway, the meeting between Naryshkin and Burns in Ankara did indeed happen. I was surprised about that. CIA Directors just do not leave the US. But, there is apparently an exception to all. I do not have a clue what they talked about. It is though clearly a sign about something.

Anyway
Ukraine is amazing at dishing out massive pain to Russia.
The gigantic tech difference and weapons supplies are now really starting to show.

This is within 24 hours:
-Galumphinc across the Dnipro Bug to take the Kinburn spit? Check
-Restoring the Antonivka Bridge and taking a solid foothold in Southeastern Kherson? Check
-Missiling an airfied in deep Crimea? Check
-Blowing up a mechanized column of two tanks and three BMPs retreating from Kherson near Melitopol with handheld anti-tank weapons? Check
-Stealing the Russian flag from ontop of the the HQ of the Mayor of Melitopol and polishing shoes with it? Check
-Changing Russian flags all over Melitopol to Ukrainian flags? Check
-Belting Russian attempts of advancement all the way from Vuhledar to north of Bakhmut? Check
-Advancing in Luhansk? Check
-Bombarding the border defence line north of Sumy? Check

At Kinburn and Oleshky there was not a lot of Russian resistance. At Hero'iske in Kinburn the Russians fought a bit, and then screamed yalla yalla and hightailed it out.
At Oleshky it was more of mopping up stragglers and very drunk Russians. The rest had gone towards Crimea.

Those that fled via Antonivka are being moved to Crimea, and those that left via Nova Kakhovka are moving out to Melitopol.
As the meme goes: Russia is heroically running backwards while Ukraine are so terrified they are running forwards... Or some such.
Ukraine are not even trying to push the attack, instead they are falling into a vacuum. They are as surprised as anyone else over the lack of Russians, but they are happily taking back the rest of Kherson even though the Russians are mean and have gone without giving the Ukrainian army a chance to belt them.

My thoughts
I think Surovikin really meant it with throwing in the towel.
He knows as well as I do (and every Ukrainian), that the Russian are almost out of heavy gear and ordnance.
At that point you just can't fight a stronger and better equiped enemy, regardless of how many numpties you are commanding.
His entire aim right now seems to be to hold on to Crimea for as long as possible in an attempt for Lavrov to try to argue that Russia should keep it if they go home from the rest.

His movements out of Southern Kherson are exactly like on that blasted map he is pointing at on the picture (i can't post the picture).

The forces left are seemingly just there to buy a few days for the retreat, but the Ukrainians are way too strong for that to work by now.

My guess is that he will pull out of the Melitopol area down to Eastern landbridge to Crimea, and that the troops to the East (Mariupol and southern Donetsk) will pull out into Russia and go around to Crimea.
The timeline for that is though unsure, my guess is that he will hold as long as possible, but it will be impossible to hold Zhaporizhzhia and Melitopol when completely flanked.

He will leave the too stupid to live Wagnerites and Kadyrovites to continue attacking Bakhmut.
Surovikin for one would be happy if the Ukrainians killed all of them, and Shoigu might giggle himself into a hernia as that problem is solved.

And up in Luhansk there are signs of units moving out backwards into Belgorod Oblast. Here is the biggest remaining tranch of T-72s. Everyone of those are nowadays incredibly important comodity to him.

I thought the map presented by Surovikin was a joke, or a ruse. Seems like it was indeed a fallback plan.
Shoigu seems to not object especially much, I guess he finally figured out that it is bloody hard to be defence minister without an army to defend with.

I guess I do not have to point out that Putin has not opened his gob about anything for two weeks. Not even his doppelgangers are especially active.
Last one saw them was on the Policemens Day when one of them rewarded policemen who had fought in the war, while someone stole a few billion dollars at Sheremetjevo Airport... I guess the police was at the wrong place.
Otherwise it has just been a few stupendously out of touch televised snippets not mentioning anything, also from a doppelganger. And the cake of stupid doppelganger thingies was when it presented the wife of Kadyrov with the Heroine of Russia medal for squirting out babies.
Problem is just that "Putin" did not specify which of Kadyrovs four wives got it. Ahem...

Putins whereifall has become a meme of sorts here.
It is sort of assumed that he is at best gasping his last breaths in Sochi with his goat.
The Russians are none to amused by the jokes about Putins Where If All status.
One thing is though as sure as we can be without the Swan Lake, he is not running the show.

Posted By: Tombs on November 15th 2022 at 07:19:07

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