Not sure it will escalate that quickly, and Putin knows it

Europe imports from Russia:

- 27% of it crude oil demand
- 41% of its natural gas
- 47% of its coal

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Since there is no viable alternative to Russia for most of that supply (and since energy prices generally are already eyewatering anyway without losing Russian supply), there is nothing serious Europe can do to Russia. We need their energy - Putin knows we need their energy. Hence, he will, slowly but surely, slice by slice, pick off the bits of Ukraine he wants and establish them as international states under effective control from Moscow. That, and of course the fact that nobody in the West has any appetite for WW3.

Everything we're seeing, around sanctions and warning Russia not to do A, B and C is just posturing, and in almost all cases a REALLY helpful distraction for politicians struggling to deal with huge domestic problems.

Posted By: Under soil heating on February 22nd 2022 at 08:38:34

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