You think a Rademacher distribution is reasonable with 6 games to play?

Anyone can do the Math? I always find the differences between the way 'normal' people approach objective problems and the way I approach objective problems fascinating. The probability that Norwich won't be promoted is preposterously small and can't readily be quantified. What odds are the bookies offering on Norwich failing to be promoted? I doubt there is much edge in those numbers.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on April 12th 2021 at 22:44:16

Message Thread

So I did a Monte Carlo Simulation on the last 5 games.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 18:48:22
- How did you define your probability density functions? (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 12, 21:58:56
  - I use Chaz as the yardstick, if he eats a big cake then..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:26:16
    - Also you can use the Rademacher distribution for simple 1 step iterations. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:29:21
      - You think a Rademacher distribution is reasonable with 6 games to play? (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 12, 22:44:16
        
        No but I found out what I wanted to know. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:55:56
- Most likely that we won't get roughly six points or fewer / 14 points or more. (NCFC) - norwaay, Apr 12, 19:24:26
  - Only if you are Norwich........do the last 5 games for Wycombe (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 21:48:46
- So your sim has identified that were going to get (NCFC) - Under soil heating, Apr 12, 19:07:55
  - would be fucking hilarious to finish on 99 points..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 19:15:16
- Would be gutting to finish on 99.83 points (NCFC) - Kangol Canary, Apr 12, 18:59:32
- Why did you do that? (n/m) (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Apr 12, 18:56:45
  - 2 reasons. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 19:23:28
  - No one knows we are up might and may get 100 points (NCFC) - pinkney, Apr 12, 19:02:41

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