Only if you are Norwich........do the last 5 games for Wycombe

and the distribution would be totally different.

I get you are being snarky.
But of course its not a revelation.
The points total of 99.83 is interesting.

The results will be between 0 and 15 points with a heavily weighted central bell curve around the predicted result.
That's how math(s) works.

The whole point is to try and predict the most likely outcome.

Why? because amazingly the betting market lets you wager on such events.
And if you are good at this "non revelation" stuff you will be filthy rich.
Even if you had a friendly bet with a friend and he thought they would get 102 points you could take the under knowing you probably have a decent edge on the bet.

Posted By: usacanary on April 12th 2021 at 21:48:46

Message Thread

So I did a Monte Carlo Simulation on the last 5 games.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 18:48:22
- How did you define your probability density functions? (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 12, 21:58:56
  - I use Chaz as the yardstick, if he eats a big cake then..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:26:16
    - Also you can use the Rademacher distribution for simple 1 step iterations. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:29:21
      - You think a Rademacher distribution is reasonable with 6 games to play? (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 12, 22:44:16
        
        No but I found out what I wanted to know. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 22:55:56
- Most likely that we won't get roughly six points or fewer / 14 points or more. (NCFC) - norwaay, Apr 12, 19:24:26
  - Only if you are Norwich........do the last 5 games for Wycombe (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 21:48:46
- So your sim has identified that were going to get (NCFC) - Under soil heating, Apr 12, 19:07:55
  - would be fucking hilarious to finish on 99 points..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 19:15:16
- Would be gutting to finish on 99.83 points (NCFC) - Kangol Canary, Apr 12, 18:59:32
- Why did you do that? (n/m) (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Apr 12, 18:56:45
  - 2 reasons. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 12, 19:23:28
  - No one knows we are up might and may get 100 points (NCFC) - pinkney, Apr 12, 19:02:41

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