I think it's going to be a complicated summer

At the start of the first wave in the UK, the R value was about 3.0. With the new UK variant being 1.5 times as transmissible, we could have R = 4.5 if we dropped all restrictions.

Vaccination will lower transmission. I've seen 67% percent quoted. We vaccinate everyone 18+ in the UK (79%) of population. 4.5 * 0.67 * 0.79 = 2.38. Essentially, we won't get herd immunity from vaccination

Say the vaccines lower hospitalisation by circa 99% and deaths 99.9%. We would be in a scenario where we could open up quickly and covid runs wild through the nation but few end up in hospital or die.

The problem we would/will face is those that who decline vaccination will be exposed to the virus but not have the protection. The people dying in hospitals will transition over to predominantly those who had an opportunity to be vaccinated and declined. I will use the term 'antivax' although it is more complex than that.

What measures are reasonable to protect anti-vaxxers from dying? Would anyone abide by the rules?

Would it be reasonable for the NHS to prioritise the many who urgently need cancer operations over anti-vaxxers? Direct anti-vaxxers to their nearest homeopath / crystal healer / etc. Reiki as palliative care? How about go one step further and rule out their burial? A massive pile of anti-vax corpses in a field somewhere. Incontrovertible proof that the vaccine deniers and the alternative therapists are completely full of s**t?

Despite being able to see an upside, it wouldn't really be a reasonable course of action would it? So we have some difficult issues to deal with over the next few months.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on February 22nd 2021 at 19:46:14

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