I don't think there's any reason to expect the rate of decline to slow

for as long as behaviour doesn't change.

And we *really* need to see the current 25% weekly falls continue - even at that rate, it's going to take another 2 months before we get to where we were at the end of August, before numbers started climbing again.

Posted By: Tricky Hawes on January 29th 2021 at 16:51:06

Message Thread

Number of cases up again (Coronavirus) - ghostof barry butler, Jan 29, 16:09:59
- Didn’t think they were. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Biggles, Jan 29, 19:05:05
- friday last week was over 40k (Coronavirus) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 29, 16:36:54
  - So next week down to 20k ish? (n/m) (Coronavirus) - loz, Jan 29, 16:42:18
    - Maybe - lots of variables isn't there? (Coronavirus) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 29, 16:46:41
      - I don't think there's any reason to expect the rate of decline to slow (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:51:06
        
        hopefully you're right (Coronavirus) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 29, 16:54:14
        
        They do social behaviour pattern studies though ,that's why (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jan 29, 17:38:51
        
        Bad ... (n/m) (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jan 29, 19:11:46
        
        Yeah, the weather will make a hooge large difference (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:56:11
        
        (actually it's 2 months if they fall at 30% a week. *3 months* if they fall at 25% a week (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:53:26
    - 7 day average will be down to about 20k, fingers crossed (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:45:30
      - ignore the noise!!!! (it's the Norwich way) (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 29, 16:47:35
      - (Which, incidentally, is still really high, obviously - will only have taken us down to (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:47:02
        
        case numbers in the 'burb in which I live dropped below 50 per 100k today (Coronavirus) - Cardiff Canary, Jan 29, 16:49:03
- People waiting till the snow has passed before they get a test? (n/m) (Coronavirus) - lurd, Jan 29, 16:26:24
- No. There's a weekly pattern (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:25:25
- But by specimen date they aren’t (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Jan 29, 16:18:07
  - Curious anomaly though.. (Coronavirus) - loz, Jan 29, 16:20:49
    - Accelerated decline oi oi (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Jan 29, 16:22:59
      - exactly. see my post above. Nothing wrong with today's case numbers - all still good, so (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:26:55
        
        Could even be the vaccinations having an effect (n/m) (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Jan 29, 16:32:49
        
        Possibly, although I would doubt that the people who've been vaccinated so far (Coronavirus) - Tricky Hawes, Jan 29, 16:44:08
- 2 days running? Wonder what the cause is ... (Coronavirus) - loz, Jan 29, 16:13:02
  - Idiots basically (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Biggles, Jan 29, 16:22:09
  - I heard some woman in the shop saying she needed to isolate for 10 days. (Coronavirus) - tudders, Jan 29, 16:15:24
    - Ffs 🤦‍♂️ (n/m) (Coronavirus) - loz, Jan 29, 16:17:45
      - A friend of ours moved to Whitby a couple of weeks ago, (Coronavirus) - tudders, Jan 29, 16:21:11

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