A reply with too many words....
Right then. As far as I understand things - and I am not an expert...
How vaccine studies worked in pre-covid times:
After smaller phase I and phase II studies and larger phase III study would be performed. Approx 20k participants. Quadruple blind. Half given vaccine, half given placebo. Wait until 200 or so of the participants test positive for the virus that the vaccine they are trialling is supposed to prevent. An independent assessor is given the details of those testing positive. Opens up the records of who received which vaccine. Performs statistical analysis of the results.
Ideal scenario is that all 200 positive were placebo and 0 were vaccine. Life isn't that simple. Maybe a greater proportion of those testing positive were placebo than vaccine. Maybe fewer vaccine died or ended up in ICU than placebo. If the statistics suggest sufficient confidence then a decision is made. If statistics are inconclusive then the trial is extended by another e.g. 100 positive tests.
What is happening now:
The rules have changed and the stats are assessed as every positive test from the trial comes in. No waiting until 200 cases. Assessment on the fly. Confidential of course. Somebody in the UK can see that the Astrazeneca vaccine has e.g. 137 positive cases, 94 from the placebo group, 43 from the vaccine group, nobody from the vaccine group died, ICU admittance was markedly lower for the vaccine group. Statistical confidence in another 45 cases. 10 cases per week and rising.
Why is any of this important? Well Prof Jonathan Van Tam is being reported as privately being 'highly confident' in the efficacy of the AZ vaccine and expects an announcement between the end of this month and the end of the next.
Do you reckon a little bird told him the state of play regarding the on-the-fly AZ vaccine trial data? I do.
Posted By: Timmy_Goat on October 23rd 2020 at 23:19:50
Message Thread
- one person hospitallised from covid every 40 seconds yesterday in France (General Chat) - shoddy, Oct 23, 21:52:23
- Vaccine is weeks away in 🇺🇸 (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Oct 23, 22:31:49
- Will be c. 60 % effective (General Chat) - paulg, Oct 23, 23:38:05
- I reckon it's weeks away here as well. (n/m) (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 23, 22:57:30
- sarcasm? (n/m) (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 23:06:05
- A reply with too many words.... (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 23, 23:19:50
- I think it will be more complicated. There won't be one vaccine that we all get (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 23:23:50
- A reply with too many words.... (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Oct 23, 23:19:50
- sarcasm? (n/m) (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 23:06:05
- The Russian one (Sputnik 5) supposed to be rolled out in mexico in November (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 22:45:25
- Poor bloke ! (n/m) (General Chat) - Augustus Pablo, Oct 23, 22:24:43
- Rolf (General Chat) - Chris Peacock, Oct 23, 22:25:48
- Rohypnol would be better (n/m) (General Chat) - Jumbo1, Oct 23, 21:55:35
- Robinhypnol (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 22:02:43
- (if people don't know) (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 22:47:27
- Come round (General Chat) - Old Git, Oct 23, 22:00:50
- Robinhypnol (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 23, 22:02:43
- Vaccine is weeks away in 🇺🇸 (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Oct 23, 22:31:49
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