I think everyone is overanalysing the figures

If you look at the data relating to cases, it very much depends on the level of testing and where/how the testing is used. The death data is key. Death rate is inferred from deaths:tests and as test data isn't robust the ratio data isn't robust either.

We aren't going to be able to predict critical aspects like how many NHS workers become unavailable due to covid infection, when any additional ventilators will be available and how people react to long term lockdown.

I think it is best to look at the death data from the countries we can trust that are further along the curve than us. Korea, Italy and Spain. These will give us an idea of how long the peak will last.

My guess is three (pretty grim) weeks to the peak, three-five more until we are at sub 1000 active cases again. We can't attempt to predict the number of deaths from the data we currently have because there are too many unknowns.

The main positive from my point of view over the last few days is that the Chinese tests give false results 30% of the time. This may not sound like a positive point but it provides an answer to the question of whether people can be reinfected or retain immunity. There were cases where people had tested -ve and subsequently tested +ve which raised doubts about covid immunity. These seemingly stem from false testing rather lack of immunity.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on March 30th 2020 at 12:51:21

Message Thread

Search for cuatious optimism from the stats (update 3) - usual apologies to those not (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 12:06:04
- I think everyone is overanalysing the figures (Coronavirus) - Timmy_Goat, Mar 30, 12:51:21
  - Yes. Although whilst we have been criticised for not testing in the community (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 13:03:55
    - I have nightmares about those CPAP machines as my dad was on and off one for a long (Coronavirus) - Yellalee, Mar 30, 13:24:09
- Hopelessly naive comment, but one I haven't seen previously on here... (Coronavirus) - Saucerer, Mar 30, 12:41:16
  - Further - again highly naive - point (Coronavirus) - Saucerer, Mar 30, 13:43:51
  - the atalanta chaiman (iirc) said he thought a champions league game between (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 30, 13:00:19
    - there were two of them - Atalanta Valencia, and Napoli Barcelona (Coronavirus) - jampersands, Mar 30, 13:28:55
      - There was a game in Milan where about 40,000 people from Bergamo went as well (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 13:33:31
        
        That's the game the article linked above is about. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - jampersands, Mar 30, 13:41:56
        
        (Atalanta play in Bergamo. Apart from the game above.) (n/m) (Coronavirus) - jampersands, Mar 30, 13:42:55
        
        Ah right, sorry (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 14:30:08
  - There has been a little mention of it yes plus also the fact that many italian (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 12:54:45
  - Yes, I've read that - (Coronavirus) - paulg, Mar 30, 12:52:37
- something to note about the French figures on fatalities (Coronavirus) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 30, 12:19:42
  - As do ours. So yes both could be slightly underplayed but its the (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 12:29:28
    - An Italian official also said yesterday that (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 12:30:38
- Sorry should say "may" be a sign things are flattening out! (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 30, 12:10:59

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