and what drives the betting market....(or any market)

People with complex models that have proven to be pretty accurate (on average) over a large sample.

Football is much more predictable than you think.
That's why the points total to avoid relegation is within a pretty tight range season after season.
Even though each team has 114 points to play for it always comes down to the Gaussian distribution although some goal models follow the Poisson Distribution as well as complex Monte Carlo simulations which add in player lineup models and travel models as well as degree of home field advantage.

Posted By: usacanary on January 18th 2020 at 18:14:33

Message Thread

81% chance of relegation now (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 17:57:45
- that's not the chance of relegation, that's simply a reflection of money wagered (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Jan 18, 18:01:09
  - and what drives the betting market....(or any market) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:14:33
  - Gamblers are well known for making good life choices though (n/m) (NCFC) - Ben, Jan 18, 18:13:40
    - The big money in gambling is smart money. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:16:47
      - as an example...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:22:04
        
        Isn’t that Tony Bloom’s company (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 18:28:34
        
        Yep, Plus there are other succesful syndicates who are much more low profile. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:32:15
        
        and yet.. the average punter still thinks he can make money based on fancies (n/m) (NCFC) - wolfio, Jan 18, 18:47:30
        
        The average punter is really fucking stupid and loses. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:55:13
  - also the opinion of traders who set the odds (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 18:04:59
    - the point still stands, it's opinion, not actual chances (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Jan 18, 18:08:55
      - Well yes that’s sport (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 18:12:00
        
        yes, but the opinion of thousands of punters will tend to average out as more correct than (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Jan 18, 18:23:28
        
        Well no - quality not quantity (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 18:33:31
        
        clearly not, which is why the odds change constantly. If they're so good, they wouldn't (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Jan 18, 18:34:58
        
        because info changes constantly. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:44:56
        
        You clearly have no clue how betting markets work. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:29:26
        
        and if they dont....... smart gambling syndicates will pound them. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:17:30
        
        Yep the pros will smash any wrong prices (NCFC) - SCC 28, Jan 18, 18:24:31
        
        The big groups will also "head fake" but thats a whole different subject. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:33:46
- Thats how a great escape works..... slowly eating away at the points total. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 18, 18:00:13

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