Pretty solid analysis. Two more things

I dont know how solid the Tory vote is.

Most Tories i know (although i disagree with them about a tonne of stuff) are Ken Clarke style Tories. They think Boris is a chancer and a buffoon and no deal utter madness. They wont vote for Boris. Some Remainer Tories might flirt with LibDem, but quite a few might just stay at home. If Boris needs to compaign for no deal in order to put the Brexit Party back in its box, he'll win the right wing nutjobs, but will lose a lot of moderates.

The other thing is it depends whether Remainer parties can coordinate. If LibDem and Labour come to some sort of sensible accommodation, they can win A LOT of Tory seats where FPTP means a pretty small minority of Tory votes is just enough to sneak past the split LD/Lab votes. This is a big if, but were it to happen (they carve up seats) that would be the end for Boris.

At the end of the day, f**k knows. But I reckon Boris will do bloody well to get back to where he started, and we might well have a "rainbow alliance".

Posted By: Under soil heating on September 3rd 2019 at 22:55:25

Message Thread

Can the tories really win a majority in an election? (General Chat) - Jim, Sep 3, 22:24:03
- "threat of no deal" (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Sep 3, 23:19:23
  - Very compelling. Give us a good deal (like the one we already have before Brexit anyway) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 3, 23:53:57
  - Yehbut yehbut yehbut (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Sep 3, 23:21:32
    - Is that why Boris lost his first ever vote as PM? 😂 (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 3, 23:55:42
- In 6 weeks absolutely anything could happen....but (General Chat) - Saucerer, Sep 3, 22:44:47
  - Pretty solid analysis. Two more things (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Sep 3, 22:55:25
    - Agree with that. Just a point on 'no deal' if that is the campaign line.... (General Chat) - Saucerer, Sep 3, 23:26:04
      - Yeh but Brexit means Brexit. Leave means leave 🤦🏻‍♂️ (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 3, 23:54:59
- Professor Penface on the BBC said that current polls suggest it's 50/50 (n/m) (General Chat) - Huge Small, Sep 3, 22:35:15
- Yes they can, not sure they will (n/m) (General Chat) - earlydoors, Sep 3, 22:25:14
  - That was more my question really. I guess they are relying on (General Chat) - Jim, Sep 3, 22:27:39
    - There is a massive anti-Corbyn undercurrent outside of die-hard labour voters (General Chat) - earlydoors, Sep 3, 22:30:45
      - Really think that none of this would have happened (General Chat) - ede, Sep 3, 23:29:01
        
        Fair point (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Sep 3, 23:56:10
      - True I suppose it’s a get Brexit plus avoid Corbyn as PM ticket (n/m) (General Chat) - Jim, Sep 3, 22:37:06
- There won’t be a split. They would campaign on no deal and repealing the bill that they (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Sep 3, 22:25:13

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