thats a 17 goal swing

only need it to be 13

so we lose by 5 over 4 games (very doable)
and leeds win by 8 over 4 games (also very doable)

#whydopeopleassumeGDwontchange

Posted By: grays on April 7th 2019 at 19:16:47

Message Thread

Leeds have a tough game off short rest so lets look at the numbers. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:13:58
- Monte Carlo simulation? (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 7, 19:40:25
  - Team strength based on current position and likely GPG (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:40:17
  - Guessed the scores and totted up the points (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 7, 21:13:42
    - Indeed. (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 7, 21:59:37
      - Its not a simple problem if you want to work out the probability distributions of... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:41:44
- We can be champs at Wigan if sheff lose both (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 17:35:12
  - "they would be battling a min +13 GD" (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:38:20
    - I did yes (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 17:41:46
      - what if we beat Villa by 20.......Shoehorn data much? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:43:35
      - thats a 17 goal swing (NCFC) - grays, Apr 7, 19:16:47
        
        I know - which beats the 16 swing and our superior goals scored (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 19:50:46
- Preston play off the same amount of rest though (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Apr 7, 17:23:56
  - You are impressively nervous / pessimistic, Loz (n/m) (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 7, 17:46:50
    - Just nerves really want this group to get promoted that’s all (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Apr 7, 19:13:29
      - We will (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 19:51:20
    - Angst over not knowing whether it's Prem or Champ transfer site rumours he needs to be on (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Apr 7, 18:04:22
      - Haha Saxonair or national express (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 18:20:30
  - They are off two home games vs Leeds 2 away games. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:26:32
    - They can spend the full amount of time recovery at their own facilities. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:27:11

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