Leeds have a tough game off short rest so lets look at the numbers.

Being away to Brum plus recovery means they wont have much time to work on stuff to play Preston. (same with us against them)

Lets look at the best case scenario where we would be promoted within 7 days from now

Leeds lose on Tuesday and we beat Reading on Wednesday.
Given a min +2 GD swing........

Norwich 87 points +12 GD
Leeds 76 points

At this point we could get promoted at Wigan which would be incredible in front of 5000+ traveling fans.

Theoretically we would be promoted AND crowned champions at Wigan if we won our next two and Shef and Leeds lost both the next 2.

At Wigan
A Norwich win and Leeds loss or draw would see us up.
A Norwich draw and Leeds loss would see us up
(they would be battling a min +13 GD)

I have crunched the numbers via a Monte Carlo simulation and the most likely place we will get promoted is Sheff Wed at home with Stoke away coming in at slightly less.
Crowned champions is most likely Blackburn at home but Stoke away is slightly less.

Posted By: usacanary on April 7th 2019 at 17:13:58

Message Thread

Leeds have a tough game off short rest so lets look at the numbers. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:13:58
- Monte Carlo simulation? (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 7, 19:40:25
  - Team strength based on current position and likely GPG (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:40:17
  - Guessed the scores and totted up the points (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 7, 21:13:42
    - Indeed. (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 7, 21:59:37
      - Its not a simple problem if you want to work out the probability distributions of... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:41:44
- We can be champs at Wigan if sheff lose both (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 17:35:12
  - "they would be battling a min +13 GD" (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:38:20
    - I did yes (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 17:41:46
      - what if we beat Villa by 20.......Shoehorn data much? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 23:43:35
      - thats a 17 goal swing (NCFC) - grays, Apr 7, 19:16:47
        
        I know - which beats the 16 swing and our superior goals scored (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 19:50:46
- Preston play off the same amount of rest though (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Apr 7, 17:23:56
  - You are impressively nervous / pessimistic, Loz (n/m) (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 7, 17:46:50
    - Just nerves really want this group to get promoted that’s all (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Apr 7, 19:13:29
      - We will (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 19:51:20
    - Angst over not knowing whether it's Prem or Champ transfer site rumours he needs to be on (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Apr 7, 18:04:22
      - Haha Saxonair or national express (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 7, 18:20:30
  - They are off two home games vs Leeds 2 away games. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:26:32
    - They can spend the full amount of time recovery at their own facilities. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:27:11

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