no, not necessarily

so what we've agreed is that a default baseline on exiting the EU:

NI will remain aligned to the single market/customs union.
No regulatory etc barriers between NI & rUK
Lots of blurb about non-discrimination based on nationality vis-a-vis EU citizens remaining here

which means:
NI ios pegged tgo the EU
rUK is pegged to NI (so EU)
We can't water down any EU rights (eg workers rights) as that wouldn't apply to EU citizens here so would only apply to UK and non-EU nationals which would be a form of indirect discrimination based on nationality

As a way of torpedoing the hard brexit brigade, it's a remarkable document. You might also call it a near complete capitulation to the EU position. (I'd say complete, but they backed down on a few important things like not charging us removal expenses for the EU institution headquarters that they don't want to let the UK keep)

What does it mean for a free trade deal?

It means we are starting from a negotiating position of having committed to following EU rules, without any corresponding access to their markets, or any say in how they are formed.

So we're on the back foot - worst case scenario for EU is no deal and a competitor who can't negotiate trade deals that might give the UK a competitive edge. Worst case for us is no deal and being limited in what trade deals we can agree.

To get that a trade deal we (a) have to maintain an open border (b) give them some incentives to do so (£££)

Well the obvious way of getting a trade deal that preserves the open border is single market/customs union. UK Gov has ruled that out, so it may take an election to reverse that position.

The only other way is to agree a Canada-like deal, which is close to single market for goods. Not for services though. It's not a great deal economically. But preserves the 'no free movement schtick' at the expense of throwing financial services under a bus.

'best' case for us now is a change of government and single market. the least worst is the Canadian model. If we can get the canadian model with some form of financial services passporting we will have done very well.

worst case is this daft position of being tied to EU law with no say over it and no access to their markets. That would be so bonkers that it is inevitable that some form of trade deal will be agreed that is close to single market in many areas, and a hard brexit is avoided.

It will be interesting to see what we have to pay to get passporting rights. That's the big target now.

Posted By: CWC on December 8th 2017 at 19:12:10

Message Thread

So, based on what's been agreed so far , are we staying in the single market? (General Chat) - Jacksons_Twelfth, Dec 8, 18:16:53
- no, not necessarily (General Chat) - CWC, Dec 8, 19:12:10
  - But who will fund the 'Pigs' apart from the Germans when we leave? (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Dec 8, 19:39:12
- All the remainers will say that is the inevitable outcome (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Dec 8, 18:19:31
  - That's utterly pointless then, whichever side of the fence you're on (General Chat) - Jacksons_Twelfth, Dec 8, 18:23:34
    - 'pointless' depends on how much you hate immigration I guess (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Dec 8, 18:58:05
      - Movement of people was just an example as a driving factor behind the leave (General Chat) - Jacksons_Twelfth, Dec 8, 19:07:34
        
        it's the only factor that's still achievable though (General Chat) - CWC, Dec 8, 19:18:06

Reply to Message

In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.

If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.