OK, so what will it take to get into the playoffs.

Did a few Monte Carlo simulations.
Most were in the 76-78 point range

78 points is a 90%+ confidence level.

So we need 27 points from 13 games or over 2 points a game.

Only Brighton and Newcastle have averaged that this season over 32 games.

8 wins 3 draws and 2 losses works.

Personally I think its too much of an ask.

I have us finishing on 72-73 points, just outside the playoffs.

Posted By: usacanary on February 23rd 2017 at 17:53:16

Message Thread

OK, so what will it take to get into the playoffs. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 17:53:16
- Better defensive setup, better fitness/stamina (NCFC) - Old Man, Feb 23, 19:24:06
  - a fair assessment (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Feb 23, 19:39:07
  - You have to say under Lambert we were always good late in games...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:29:04
- About 22% of Reading's and Huddersfield's points have come from the last 10 minutes. (NCFC) - APB, Feb 23, 18:09:42
  - We've got 17 off the last 9, losing twice, as far as I can see. (NCFC) - APB, Feb 23, 18:22:11
    - That completely ignores our run in (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 23, 18:42:58
    - Hudds are, right now, a lot better than us (n/m) (NCFC) - Dandy Highburyman, Feb 23, 18:23:03
      - Yep .. they've been better than us all season tho. (NCFC) - Gob on a Stick, Feb 23, 19:13:25
      - it looks very much as if our games against Reading, Hudds, Leeds, Weds (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Feb 23, 18:26:26
        
        Happy to be proved wrong but can't see that at the mo... (NCFC) - Dandy Highburyman, Feb 23, 18:43:11
        
        on current form, we're going to be very close (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Feb 23, 18:57:58
        
        On current form we wont be close at all. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:18:06
        
        We'll be fine, stop flapping (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 23, 19:23:21
        
        Oh Look who has come out for a tilt.... Mr Xenophobia (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:26:56
        
        Good Evening Donald (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 23, 19:29:13
        
        makes no sense........ (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:31:18
        
        Honestly, I don't need you to (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 23, 19:34:30
        
        Typical thicky answer.....you do seem like the ignorant type. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:56:22
        
        Dunt blah Donald, your answer is closer to home (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 23, 19:57:49
        
        VMT (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 23, 19:20:01
        
        Sadly we're not good enough to me the play offs. (n/m) (NCFC) - CROYDONCANARY, Feb 23, 19:04:07
        
        thanks for the warning, I won't bother following anymore (n/m) (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Feb 23, 19:08:15
        
        God forbid anyone has a reasonable rational conclusion. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 23, 19:25:31
        
        the statement is patently untrue (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Feb 23, 19:35:00

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