That stats predictor site posted yesterday
Just had a chance to have a quick look at:
"The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win."
Be interesting to know how the weightings work. And whether the "opponents record" has been weighted according to credibility and relevance (the more recent past results being more relevant than the older past results). Perhaps some kind of blended Bayesian method could be used to improve the model, whereby an a-priori distribution (or estimated number of total points accumulated say) is blended with the past data (or "opponents record") weighted by how many games have been played to date? Also, the fact that teams coming into form now or are "on the beach" and have nothing to play for etc isn't taken into account somehow is a bit of a weakness.
The bit about home advantage is ok I suppose, unless it's known that certain teams tend to play better either at H or A and that could perhaps also be factored in somehow.
Overall, it's an interesting attempt at trying to stochastically model the league table though. Good effort. Does anyone have the code/exact algorithm he used though? Probably make more sense if that's accessible somehow.
Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on March 22nd 2016 at 01:57:04
Message Thread
- That stats predictor site posted yesterday (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 22, 01:57:04
- It's a bag of shit that scc will use repeatedly in arguments ..instead of going to an.... (NCFC) - yellowman, Mar 22, 10:23:00
- Lol what arguments? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 22, 10:53:36
- Normally do a best of 3 on that pro evo with collina on the cover (n/m) (NCFC) - MIKEWALKER, Mar 22, 06:28:33
- lmao (n/m) (NCFC) - earthleakage, Mar 22, 03:07:13
- As an example, how does it handle our last two games (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 22, 02:22:26
- Yeah possibly they could factor in what the players had for dinner too (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 22, 11:33:26
- Oh........ (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 22, 15:46:06
- Tbf that was a pretty major factor when spurs/Arsenal were food poisoned that time (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 22, 13:43:07
- Yeah but hard to get the info (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 22, 14:23:48
- Anything easy, ain't worth doing. That's why we're going to stay up the hard way this year (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 22, 15:13:47
- Yeah but hard to get the info (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 22, 14:23:48
- Sadly (NCFC) - bullsch, Mar 22, 06:41:36
- And FAO of Mikey Boy and Yelllows2011 best mate...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 22, 02:37:49
- Ooh, you bit hard there... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 22, 07:56:20
- ha ha.......ship it Ladyboyz (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 22, 11:18:08
- You OK hun? (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 22, 12:01:58
- ha ha.......ship it Ladyboyz (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 22, 11:18:08
- ... (NCFC) - I Am Hoot, Mar 22, 05:47:17
- Ooh, you bit hard there... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 22, 07:56:20
- Yeah possibly they could factor in what the players had for dinner too (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 22, 11:33:26
- It's a bag of shit that scc will use repeatedly in arguments ..instead of going to an.... (NCFC) - yellowman, Mar 22, 10:23:00
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