so how do you use this stat to predict the outcome of any match?

You cant, it says almost nothing about the strength of the team.

As for match by match.......isnt that exactly how you would predict the final points tally.

You estimate the number of points a team would collect if the identical matchup were played a gazziliion time or how may you want in some kind of monte carlo simulation.

Now if you want to talk about "quality possession"..... thats a totally different ball game.......but thats a stat almost never discussed on footie shows....

Posted By: usacanary on August 17th 2015 at 23:02:36

Message Thread

average possession % after 2 games (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:01:55
- Big difference for me in the two games so far compared to (NCFC) - Jim, Aug 17, 22:56:00
- its long been known its a totally useless stat. (NCFC) - usacanary, Aug 17, 22:41:12
  - last 3 seasons top 10 in top half - 9,9,8 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:46:32
    - On a match by match basis (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:47:56
      - i couldn't give a fuck about match by match (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:48:39
        
        so how do you use this stat to predict the outcome of any match? (NCFC) - usacanary, Aug 17, 23:02:36
        
        i have no interest in doing that (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 23:10:14
        
        this has been the trend in recent years (NCFC) - Brandonio, Aug 17, 23:33:15
        
        Probably why this appeared in the Telegraph I should imagine: (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:07:20
        
        how are you supposed to predict something happening before the event (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 23:12:00
        
        So you will easily win Yellalee's prediction tournament then (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:13:11
        
        not in it (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 23:14:26
        
        Of course you're not in it (to win it) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:17:06
        
        hadn't thought of that tbh (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 23:24:18
        
        Congratulations in advance! :D (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:13:26
        
        Flashback: Didn't you used to post our possession stats after ever game (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:00:17
        
        We have played TWO matches. Of those TWO matches (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:55:56
        
        *statistically (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:56:23
- Total football the Alex Neil way! Great stat (n/m) (NCFC) - Hit Squadie, Aug 17, 22:21:22
- Leicester interesting given they are 2nd (n/m) (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Aug 17, 22:04:33
  - They were battered second half at West Ham and played (NCFC) - Jim, Aug 17, 22:51:10
  - Must be clinical up top - their new player Mahrez seems to be getting a lot of praise (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:08:52
    - Was there last season (NCFC) - bjg123, Aug 17, 22:17:32
    - they've had 30 shots over the 2 games (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:13:25
    - He looks class! (n/m) (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Aug 17, 22:11:46
      - Hope he's injured then when we play them! (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:13:46
      - he's been there a year and a half as well (n/m) (NCFC) - matt in london, Aug 17, 22:12:44
  - sample is too small really to be significant (NCFC) - Tombs, Aug 17, 22:08:41
    - Here's a view of the correlation from 2011 (fucking 4 years ago! but still :-)) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:12:42
      - an article from 4 years ago (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:14:50
        
        total and utter bullschitt (NCFC) - Tombs, Aug 17, 22:20:34
        
        last season's top 10 for possession and weren't below 50 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:19:33
        
        How is that significantly different to the top 10 (4 fucking years ago then)? (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:22:28
        
        you were the one who said possession was meaningless! (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:30:53
        
        No I didn't. I linked to a statistical study from 2011 (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:34:21
        
        so you agree there's a major correlation excellent (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:41:12
        
        Huge jump from concluding: (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:45:37
        
        .... (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:47:59
        
        Does not suggest for one moment that helping Liverpool sign players (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 23:02:50
        
        Let's see the stats to back that up then (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Aug 17, 22:19:01
        
        see above! (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 17, 22:19:43
    - True indeed (n/m) (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Aug 17, 22:12:05

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