FAO norway, re those odds

below, which apparently have us 11/10 for top 2, and 4/6 for promotion.

You were asking what that says for the chances of success if we make the play-offs (and suggesting the odds of us going up if are in the POs looked a bit short, I think?)

Just backing out the maths of that (and ignoring the bookies' slice, for simplicity).

Those odds say we have a 48% chance of top 2, and 60% of promotion.

So they're saying a 12% chance we go up via the play-offs.

Separately, they also have odds of us finshing top 6 (1/12) - which means the overall odds imply a 45% chance we'll finish in the play offs (92% - 48%).

So taking that together, the odds imply that *if* we finish in the play-offs, we have a 28% chance of going up through them (12% / 45%).

So only a touch more than 1 in 4. Not that generous.

(Of course, all this ignores the bookies' cut, as I say. For example, there's probably more than an 8% chance we finish 7th or worse...?)

Posted By: Tricky Hawes on March 9th 2015 at 14:51:42

Message Thread

FAO norway, re those odds (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Mar 9, 14:51:42
- bookies odds vs true odds (General Chat) - usacanary, Mar 9, 16:24:23
- Yep, fair enough. (General Chat) - norway, Mar 9, 14:59:06
- the odds were only approx for top 2 (General Chat) - SCC 28, Mar 9, 14:57:22
  - thinking about it, 11/10 seems really mean for top 2 actually (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Mar 9, 14:58:37
    - yeah from the recent minumum prices (General Chat) - SCC 28, Mar 9, 15:08:05
      - if you took the average book they have 20-30 big on these bets (General Chat) - usacanary, Mar 9, 16:28:49
        
        % vigorish.....damm phone (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Mar 9, 16:29:21

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