so do it properly..........
estimate W/L/D % probabilities for each individual game (you can use betting lines to give you rough estimates, minus the built in bookies vigorish)
Or you can use a more realistic Monte Carlo simulation of results based on team strength vs venue plus other factors such as squad strength due to transfers/injuries.
Travel/rest factors are very important also in calculations.
(its a proven fact that teams off full rest play better than those off partial rest)
You should be able to work out the odds of various events using a normal distribution (Bellend curve)
Posted By: usacanary on March 4th 2015 at 16:19:58
Message Thread
- my promotion run in difficulty ratings after tonight (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 4, 15:35:13
- Think I posted a link to this from an opposing fans message board the other night... (n/m) (NCFC) - Vivid Data Shark, Mar 4, 17:03:18
- What's a difficulty rating, SCC? (n/m) (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Mar 4, 15:50:22
- so do it properly.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 4, 16:19:58
- i've just gone with a quick rough effort (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 4, 16:24:20
- how hard their games are (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 4, 15:55:33
- It's a basic form of Attention Garnering Coefficient. (NCFC) - Arizona Bay, Mar 4, 15:54:19
- so do it properly.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 4, 16:19:58
- you told me we wouldn't get regulated but we did - I don't trust you anymore! (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Mar 4, 15:37:28
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