assuming there's a 25% chance of a draw

and of the remaining 75%, it's random whether you win or lose.

Then you have a 37.5% chance of winning any game in particular, and a 62.5% chance of not winning.

Then the chances of not winning 11 (opening) games in a row is 0.625^11, = 0.0057, = approx 1 in 175.

Posted By: Tricky Hawes on August 6th 2014 at 13:53:03

Message Thread

When did we last win on the opening game of the season? (n/m) (NCFC) - Drinklebells, Aug 6, 12:47:55
- I remember a 4-0 v Grimsby. (n/m) (NCFC) - lovely old job, Aug 6, 12:53:12
- Home to Grimsby in 2002 wasn't it? (n/m) (NCFC) - Brandonio, Aug 6, 12:52:43
  - 13 opening games without a win. FFS. (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:10:44
    - Why slightly greater than 1 in 3 if random? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 6, 13:49:03
      - assuming there's a 25% chance of a draw (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:53:03
        
        I'm a bit busy btw, so if you've decided you want to make this one of your (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:56:21
        
        LOL was just intrigued that was all! (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 6, 14:00:20
        
        Joint favourites 7/4 as a rule too in league fixtures (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 6, 14:03:20
        
        Which takes it to about 470/1 I think (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 6, 14:10:35
        
        Damn. I had this thread down as odds-on for spat of the day. (NCFC) - Pit, Aug 6, 14:00:16
    - How are those odds affected by the fact we were utter shite for half of that time? (n/m) (NCFC) - Brandonio, Aug 6, 13:16:06
      - We were absolutely dicked on the first day the year we got in to the play-offs iirc (NCFC) - norway, Aug 6, 13:28:56
        
        what happened on the first game of or (last) chumps promotion season? (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:34:52
        
        Lost 3-1 at home to Watford live on Sky on a friday night (NCFC) - Brandonio, Aug 6, 13:36:51
        
        Ah yes. Watched that in an Unthank Road pub. (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:38:18
      - well, there's a question (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:21:58
    - oops., no. it's 11 games without a win. So a 1 in 175 chance of not winning 11 in a row. (n/m) (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:11:59
      - Show your workings please (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Aug 6, 13:47:14
      - Nice to see you pumped-up ready for the new season. (n/m) (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Aug 6, 13:17:27
        
        I am looking forward to it (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Aug 6, 13:20:15

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