your method could actually predict things that were completely impossible tho

(eg if they had each lost the last 6, but were playing each other before the end of ther season)

Given Stoke and Sunderland have to basically lose every single game, apart from when they play each other when they have to draw, I think it's hard to deny that's over-optimistic.

Projecting us to get 6 more points is less unlikely than that, but it's still pretty unlikely, too, I think...

Posted By: Tricky Hawes on April 9th 2013 at 11:34:37

Message Thread

Nasie's Auntie Table of Anti-Tilt ... UBTTT ... the bad news is........ (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 10:53:26
- I thought the percieved wosdom was that we would need at least 39 to stand any chance of (NCFC) - CB41, Apr 9, 10:57:06
  - that table is v v optimistic (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 10:59:44
    - actuallly, it's almost impossible things could go that well (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:02:29
      - actualllly the point is more the determine final positions rather than final points. (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 11:05:51
        
        I don't think that's true (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:08:32
        
        One word. (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 11:10:54
        
        2005 hardly proves it gets harder to get points at the end of the season tho (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:13:40
        
        Well, we'd better go on another run like then, then. (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 11:24:31
        
        your method could actually predict things that were completely impossible tho (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:34:37
        
        generally teams are only "on the beach" if they're playing away from home (NCFC) - mr carra, Apr 9, 11:23:11
        
        Norwich 0 Carlisle 2 (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Apr 9, 11:51:27
        
        Our players were drunk (n/m) (NCFC) - Brandonio, Apr 9, 12:31:47
        
        Clappy Lap. (NCFC) - Arizona Bay, Apr 9, 11:24:49
        
        Lapdance of Honour. (n/m) (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 11:27:27
        
        Tricky's done me here, I think we're gone. (n/m) (NCFC) - jafski, Apr 9, 11:35:30
  - Wose words mate! (n/m) (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 10:58:23
    - Wose and wose (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Apr 9, 11:13:41
- takes no account of any Di Canio effect though... (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 10:56:17
  - Looks like he did the old beeb predictor, so he must have done (n/m) (NCFC) - King, Apr 9, 11:03:40
    - no - as he says, he just looked at how many points they got from their last 6 games (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:05:04
      - Oh (NCFC) - King, Apr 9, 11:14:17
        
        ...anda it assumes we win 2 of our last 6, or win 1, draw 3, lose 2 (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:20:21
        
        I see no reason why we can't beat all three of Reading, WBA and Stoke (n/m) (NCFC) - King, Apr 9, 11:41:52
        
        well, no, other than that we've won one game in fifteen (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:45:36
        
        Alternatively (NCFC) - King, Apr 9, 11:49:18
        
        yup (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:49:53
        
        Further to that (NCFC) - King, Apr 9, 11:44:29
        
        agree that's the more likely hope - that we draw our way to safety (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Apr 9, 11:47:30
  - Half a dozen games to go Tricks. (NCFC) - Jim Nasium, Apr 9, 11:02:34

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