actually you would be kind of wrong.

The fewer games remaining, the less accurate it is in terms of strength of shedule. (opponent strength)

Let me give an extreme example.

Lets say a team in the bottom 3 (wolves) had 5 games remaining.

If their last 5 games were

Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Spurs
Arsenal

or

Wigan
Bolton
QPR
Blackburn
Aston Villa

The TOT doesnt look at strength of shedule but looks at average results.

It actually does better as a predictive force if we have say 19 games played........ how will a team do in the next 19 games.
Because the next 19 game contains roughly the same average strength of opposition.

If I want to predcit how an individual team will do then you have to analyze game by game for each probability of outcome.

Posted By: usacanary on March 25th 2012 at 19:04:25

Message Thread

Table de pr?diction de l'inclinaison.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 18:46:11
- How come we finish above Swansea? (NCFC) - norway, Mar 25, 18:55:51
  - TOT doesn't look at GD......fwiw I have us finishing below Swansea (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 19:10:46
- I love the table of tilt (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Mar 25, 18:50:29
  - Yep, and uncannily, it fee (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 25, 18:51:15
    - erm... feels more accurate, the closer to the end of the season we get. (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 25, 18:51:50
      - actually you would be kind of wrong. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 19:04:25
        
        So how come... (NCFC) - N1fty5iftyCity, Mar 25, 19:10:43
        
        Only Fulham in the same position (NCFC) - norway, Mar 25, 19:22:23
        
        tbf - 21st Jan, ToT said 32 pts to stay up (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Mar 25, 20:20:57
        
        It's just averages (NCFC) - norway, Mar 25, 20:25:14
        
        Well in the older one, Wigan were predicted to get 26 points (NCFC) - N1fty5iftyCity, Mar 25, 19:22:03
        
        you are smart enough to realize that the numbers are based...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 19:55:24
        
        When you say 'current form', how many games are you referring to? (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 25, 20:25:49
        
        the current season (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 20:39:06
        
        So not current form then (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 25, 20:41:40
        
        this smells like a tilt over nothing.......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 21:36:56
        
        huh? those are pretty close? I dont get your point? (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 19:15:02
      - then why do all the football "experts" keep spouting 40 points? (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 18:56:45
      - I reckon he might have it spot on the money after the last game (NCFC) - N1fty5iftyCity, Mar 25, 18:56:30
- Have we not been saying 3 from 5 for weeks? :) (n/m) (NCFC) - Klobo04, Mar 25, 18:48:54
  - yes I have! :) (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 25, 18:53:43
    - I think the league table has been telling most people that to be fair Usac (NCFC) - Klobo04, Mar 25, 19:01:26

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