when will we get to 40 points......Stats Tilt ahead......

most people are not thinking about their calculations in the correct way.

They are looking at the games we should win.

A better way to do it is "point probability" per game.

As an example in todays game the betting market odds were as follows. (minus bookie vig)

Chelsea 8/13 (61%)
Norwich 5/1 (16%)
Draw 16/5 (23%)

This gives you a figure of

Chelsea 2.06 points for this game
Norwich 0.71 points for this game

If you can estimate the approx odds (which I have done) you can work out how many points in each game we should get. (on average)

Against Chelsea we got 1 point, which is a better than expected result.

Against Fulham we got 1 point which is a worse than expected (1.4 predicted)

Looking at the relative toughness of each game (wigan at home being the weakest opponent and Spurs away being the toughest)

You can come up with a figure.

I estimate we will get around 45 points (+/- 3 )

I estimate we will cross the 40 point mark at the end of the Everton game on April 7th

I have us only taking around 5 points from the last 6 games.

Posted By: usacanary on January 21st 2012 at 20:25:41

Message Thread

when will we get to 40 points......Stats Tilt ahead...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:25:41
- Fucking hell. (NCFC) - Arizona Bay, Jan 21, 21:02:58
- Dont take this personally Usac.... (NCFC) - Klobo04, Jan 21, 20:31:35
  - Harsh........ but funny. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:52:37
  - Ooof... (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Jan 21, 20:32:47
    - Dont get me wrong...Its fun to predict.... (NCFC) - Klobo04, Jan 21, 20:34:14
      - Math, learning, books, hedge-u-cation...... all that squit...... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:43:00
        
        MathSSSS! (n/m) (NCFC) - woody, Jan 21, 21:39:58
        
        Thats where I went wrong in life :) (n/m) (NCFC) - Klobo04, Jan 21, 20:43:36
- But that's what I've done (NCFC) - norway, Jan 21, 20:29:26
  - so how many points will we get against Man City at home? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:41:52
    - well if you predict a win whilst shagging the dog on a tuesday at 8 you will (NCFC) - selwyn, Jan 21, 20:44:14
      - cunt (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn_is_a_cunt, Jan 21, 23:11:07
      - Thanks..... Nostra-dumb-arse (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:47:59
    - 0,1 or 3 (NCFC) - Klobo04, Jan 21, 20:43:21
      - So where do betting odds come from? (NCFC) - usacanary, Jan 21, 20:46:57
    - I don't know (NCFC) - norway, Jan 21, 20:42:46

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