Update on the 40 point thingy.........
I made the following post a month ago suggesting its unlikley we would need 40 points to stay up this season.
User Posted Link
Just thought I would update it based on the latest Prediction Table of Tilt and how it compares to last season after 17 games were played.
QPR 41 Blackburn 47
WBA 38 Aston Villa 45
Fulham 38 Everton 40
Wolves 35 Brum 40
wigan 30 Fulham 36
Sunderland 30 Wigan 36
Blackburn 27 Wolves 34
Bolton 23 West Ham 27
It should be obvious that the bottom 8 teams are still on pace for a much lower average points total this season.
To need 40 points it would require a pretty large shift in the form of the PL where the majority of clubs in the bottom 8 start picking up points at a much higher rate.
To get a more accurate estimate of each teams points total you have to estimate their probability of points in each individual game based on strength of opposition and venue.
Its also worth mentioning that points totals vary slightly in an upward bias for the relegation battling teams.
(meaning their points totals will have a higher probability of being higher than lower)
Bottom line I still predict it will only take 33-37 points to stay up this season.
My personal estimate is 36 points based on strength of shedules, which is slightly higher than the average figure.
Posted By: usacanary on December 21st 2011 at 16:16:07
Message Thread
- Update on the 40 point thingy......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 16:16:07
- If the bottom two get cut off (NCFC) - Firstnews, Dec 21, 17:12:20
- Unlikley..... as 5 of the bottom 7.............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:28:43
- Agreed (NCFC) - fond, Dec 21, 17:01:18
- Its simple...7 wins from 21 games and we're safe. Possibly even 6. (NCFC) - CityForLife, Dec 21, 16:58:14
- 5 will be enough (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:59:43
- lower lower (NCFC) - fond, Dec 21, 17:03:09
- yeah that would do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 17:06:59
- lower lower (NCFC) - fond, Dec 21, 17:03:09
- 5 will be enough (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:59:43
- Happy Christmas USAC. (NCFC) - tudders, Dec 21, 16:39:41
- I think we will stay up on goal difference (NCFC) - Larry Hagman, Dec 21, 16:29:42
- Blimey we're in for a shit second half of the season then (n/m) (NCFC) - Duck, Dec 21, 16:32:30
- 3 wins 5 draws 13 losses (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:34:14
- which curiously is exactly what blackpool did after 17 games (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:36:54
- they would have stayed up this season. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:08:32
- yes but their downfall was all their defeats to clubs around them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 17:11:23
- They would have still stayed up........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:43:36
- i already said that (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 17:46:07
- Well done! (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:47:42
- i already said that (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 17:46:07
- They would have still stayed up........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:43:36
- yes but their downfall was all their defeats to clubs around them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 17:11:23
- they would have stayed up this season. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 21, 17:08:32
- which curiously is exactly what blackpool did after 17 games (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:36:54
- 3 wins 5 draws 13 losses (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 21, 16:34:14
- Blimey we're in for a shit second half of the season then (n/m) (NCFC) - Duck, Dec 21, 16:32:30
- So Man City and Man U are safe then. Wonder if they're celebrating (n/m) (NCFC) - CB41, Dec 21, 16:19:05
- If the bottom two get cut off (NCFC) - Firstnews, Dec 21, 17:12:20
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