Your error is simple.

You have assumed both Reading and Swansea have a 0% chance of getting 2nd.

It should be obvious that is totally incorrect.

While it is true Norwich are much greater then 50% vs Cardiff alone....... they are not against all 3.

Posted By: usacanary on April 23rd 2011 at 19:04:09

Message Thread

For anyone interested in betting. A value bet. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:40:10
- Gaining 2nd is closer to 60% than 50% (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:51:30
  - really!....... show us how you got that number. (n/m) (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:53:49
    - Purely because we have 1 more point than Cardiff with equal number of games left (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:58:13
      - Your error is simple. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 19:04:09
        
        an easy mistake to make (Betting) - jayson blair, Apr 23, 20:08:29
      - Run a Monte Carlo simulation. (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 19:01:40
        
        I did........ it said............. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 19:06:10
- why would you add 25 to 60 (Betting) - SCC 28, Apr 23, 18:46:26
  - this still needs answering (n/m) (Betting) - matt in london, Apr 23, 19:20:36
- what site? (n/m) (Betting) - Huge 5mal1, Apr 23, 18:44:23
  - www.madeupbettingsite.co.ck (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 18:49:10
- I have no idea what that means statto? (n/m) (Betting) - Al NCFC41ife5, Apr 23, 18:43:19
  - neither does he... (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Apr 23, 18:46:37
- Numbertilt. (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 18:41:42
  - Sometimes you just have to let it go........ (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:51:13

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