For anyone interested in betting. A value bet.
A certain sportsbook that I have been banned from numerous times under different ID's is offering 6/4 on Norwich reaching the playoffs.
As we have a playoff place locked up the only way to lose the bet is if we get 2nd.
It should be obvious that at 6/4 odds its suggesting our chances of grabbing 2nd alone are aound 60%
If you add this to the 25% chance of promotion from the playoffs that would make 85% which is obviously a bit high.
Our true odds of grabbing 2nd are probably no better than 50% making 6/4 a value bet.
Posted By: usacanary on April 23rd 2011 at 18:40:10
Message Thread
- For anyone interested in betting. A value bet. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:40:10
- Gaining 2nd is closer to 60% than 50% (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:51:30
- really!....... show us how you got that number. (n/m) (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:53:49
- Purely because we have 1 more point than Cardiff with equal number of games left (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:58:13
- Your error is simple. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 19:04:09
- an easy mistake to make (Betting) - jayson blair, Apr 23, 20:08:29
- Run a Monte Carlo simulation. (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 19:01:40
- I did........ it said............. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 19:06:10
- Your error is simple. (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 19:04:09
- Purely because we have 1 more point than Cardiff with equal number of games left (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:58:13
- really!....... show us how you got that number. (n/m) (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:53:49
- why would you add 25 to 60 (Betting) - SCC 28, Apr 23, 18:46:26
- this still needs answering (n/m) (Betting) - matt in london, Apr 23, 19:20:36
- what site? (n/m) (Betting) - Huge 5mal1, Apr 23, 18:44:23
- www.madeupbettingsite.co.ck (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 18:49:10
- I have no idea what that means statto? (n/m) (Betting) - Al NCFC41ife5, Apr 23, 18:43:19
- neither does he... (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Apr 23, 18:46:37
- Numbertilt. (n/m) (Betting) - Arizona Bay, Apr 23, 18:41:42
- Sometimes you just have to let it go........ (Betting) - usacanary, Apr 23, 18:51:13
- Gaining 2nd is closer to 60% than 50% (n/m) (Betting) - harry boulders, Apr 23, 18:51:30
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