Yes.

NFL sides (spreads) are very accurate but still very beatable.
Its a very liquid market meaning the sharpest betting syndicates can get down virtually as much as they want.

For the smaller bettor you can exploit all kinds of stuff just on pure math "even" if you assume the full game lline is 100% correct.
Teasers are beatable, Quarters are beatable, 1st half lines are very beatable.
Scoring in the NFL is distributed meaning certain numbers land more than others. That gives you a mathematical edge in certain spots.

Week 17 is free money week because the lines will move based on motivation.
Example PHI plays DAL at 4.15 pm EST

The early games are at 1.00 EST
For PHI to still have a shot at the playoffs they need TB to lose and either of CHI or MIN to lose.

If you add up the probabilities they only have an 8% chance of NOT being eliminated before the game kicks off. (92% chance of being eliminated)
If you want me to do the math I can.

Currently DAL is small underdog. If PHI are eliminated they will move to being a dog (because they dont care and are out)

So you have a 92% chance of holding dog moneyline tickets on both teams.
(meaning whatever side wins....... you win)

Posted By: usacanary, Dec 27, 19:16:19