Doom and gloom....... 49 points.

OK, here is my rough analysis of the current situation.

Colchester are down.

Scunthorpe are unlikely to get to 49 points, probably down

So that means one place left.

We currently have 49 points.

I actually think that there is a 40% chance that at least ONE of the 4 following teams will not reach 50 points.
Leicester, Shef Wed, Barnsley and Southampton.

It would not be unremarkable for a bad team to go on a 3Loss 2Draw (or worse) run to end the season.

49 points MAY be enough, 50 points will probably be enough, 52 points is almost a lock to stay up.
What helps is that so many teams are in close promotion/relegation battles.

Posted By: usacanary, Apr 3, 21:10:01