Except...

That an event that is priced at 11/8 won't happen 500 times out of a 1000.

If they were true odds it would happen 283 times out of a 1000 and taking into account the bookmakers 'edge' (say 10%) it will actually happen 183 times out of 1000. In which case you'll be a sad punter.

I expect I've got something wrong in the maths but the principle stands up. The only way to really win is where there is 'value' in the odds (ie where the true odds are lower than those offered). Bet over time on value (however small and remember you'll also need to overcome the bookies edge) and you will win. Not many people have the knowledge to work out the true odds and bookies edges are very stingy, hence lots of rich bookies and lots of poor punters.

Posted By: Kangol Canary, Mar 14, 13:14:31