The USAC historical Promotion analysis. Tilterz will be Tilted.

Lets start off with top 2, that ship has sailed!

We would need probably 88 points+ so 70 points from 32 games is roughly 2.2 PPG
Thats an almost impossible target for a team with 8 losses already.

The playoffs are a bit more realistic especially with 7th and 8th places available now.

I used the past 20 seasons of data looking at 8th place finishes
The results were pretty interesting with only one real outlier, a very tight distribution of points for an 8th place finish.

Of the past 20 champs seasons

68 - 7
69 - 4
67 - 2
70 - 2
66 - 1
65 - 1
72 - 1
73 - 1
77 - 1

Average past 20 seasons 68.95 points
Average past 5 seasons 68.20 points

Its clear that 90% of the distribution is in a very tight range.

% probability of 8th based on historical data

68 - 55%
69 - 75%
70 - 85%

Lets take 70 points as a reasonable benchmark
We would need 52 points from 32 games 1.63 PPG
After 14 games we are currently 1.29 PPG

Historical data would show that an average team in our position would have a way less than 40% chance of making the playoffs.

There is a reason that MOST teams who are bottom of the table in November tend to stay there and MOST teams at the top of the division tend to stay there.
There is a strong correlation between the form of the opening 15 games and the PPG going forward.

As you approach 50% of games played you can run simulations based on the strength of schedule remaining which will give you a more accurate prediction.

Posted By: usacanary, Nov 4, 15:46:46