well they give probabilities for different outcomes, so not obvious what 'being correct'

means.

But they themselves say:
"How much faith should we have in these predictions? Our projections are not far from bookmakers’ odds—except for a lower winning probability for England—and our model would have performed quite well at previous World Cups (for example, when measured with the goal difference). That said, the model’s statistical power remains limited—not a surprise given football’s inherent unpredictability."

Posted By: Tricky Hawes, May 31, 16:04:11