And the reality according to AI is that the blockade is working

What’s actually happening:

Some ships (including Chinese-linked ones) have turned back or been stopped.
In the first days, multiple vessels were intercepted or reversed course under U.S. orders, showing real enforcement.

At least one Chinese tanker tried to push through but then backed off.

A Chinese-owned tanker (Rich Starry) initially attempted to bypass the blockade but ultimately retreated and anchored near Iran.
There are also cases of ships still getting through (or trying to).
Some Iran-linked vessels—including ones tied to China—have transited the strait in limited circumstances, sometimes during early “grace periods” or gaps.
Shipping overall is way down — not normal at all.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply from normal levels (130+ ships/day) because of the blockade and risk.

Posted By: Tony Martin, Apr 15, 22:30:52