OK so what if we won the next 5 games....

Oh boy, I ran a simulation and its really really close if we win all the games.
The important factor is winning the next 5 games would increase our GD from between +5 to +15 which would be essentially an extra point over our rivals except Saints unless they implode.
Even though its possible 6 teams will have more points than us, its highly unlikely 6 teams would have a better GD if we won all 5 games.
Based on that factor alone 6th place would need 74 points.....

The real sickner is if we would have won the last game..... 5 wins would have been close to a shoe in (80-90% prob) with 76 needed to beat us.

The reality is we need to win all the games and the teams above us to slip up quite a bit. Which TBF most will do.

Posted By: usacanary, Apr 6, 20:41:51