30 points from the last 51 is a possibility (unlikely, but possible)

That would put us into the mid 60s. The top 2-3 are already into the 50s, so we won’t catch them. However, only one team has managed 2ppg so far, and we beat them last night. Their form is poor and could indicate a slide, though I don’t think it will. Middlesbrough and the Shit could catch them though, and Coventry would be difficult to beat in the playoffs.

The league is quite condensed this season (so far) and it could be that top 6 might require fewer points than usual. Teams are taking points off each other. I’d say, based on recent performances, we might take 25 - 35 points off the last 17 games. Realistically, that would mean mid table safety and that looks most likely, barring misfortune, injuries, random chaos etc. If we slump to 1ppg, we’d make 50 points, borderline staying up / relegation. 2ppg is 67, borderline playoffs / comfortably mid table. There will be a regression to the norm, so I’m revising my predictions upwards from likely relegation to 70:30 middle of the league, approximately where we finished last season.

Optimism makes me hope that this could be the new norm, the injury curse might have lifted and we bang on through the rest of the season at 2ppg or more, finish 6th and win at Wembley on the crest of an orgasmic rush of dominance. In which case I have to actually eat a hat.

Posted By: APB, Jan 27, 10:10:47