An example from years ago where superior data analysis......

makes the actual raw data incorrect.

NBA odds making and line making is very data driven and player dependent.

Its pretty easy to come up with a line based on pace, off efficiency and deff efficiency
An example of the stats are here.
User Posted Link

Based on the pure stats you come up with a betting line and a line on the total.
Simple huh.....but everyone has those stats!

There are 82 NBA games in a season so back to back games are not uncommon.
Games off short rest are not uncommon.
Lots of travel not uncommon.

What some very clever individuals did many years ago is analyze the e(a)ffects of days of rest and travel play on the real line.
These are now well known but at the time we did it they were not. (if they were the market makers would put out the correct line)
Often it would make a 1-5 point difference in the handicap line which is a massive edge.

My point is you can look at the available data and it tells you one thing but the real truth can be hidden.

You don't just need analysis.....you need superior analysis to get the edge in the data game.

Posted By: usacanary, Nov 6, 21:16:08