Pretty decent methodology for once.

while adding in opponent strength (Rotherham at home vs Leeds away) is important you have to add in days of rest and injury adjustments. (The betting market will)
You then run a Monte Carlo based on a probability of W/L/D for each game.
You then get a bell curve of points distribution probabilities.

Compare this methodology with xG which is some shlub on his couch guessing how good each chance is.
(i e totally subjective)

Do more math and less stupidity.

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 19, 13:27:03