And FWIW I know from experience of building a betting line that ...

You first start with assuming two teams are playing on a neutral ground then build in the factors such as home field advantage combined with adjustments for rest and injuries.

Injuries are a far less significant adjustment than people would think.
One player rarely has a huge effect in a team game outside of a Quarterback in the NFL.
There is also something known as replacement value.
Losing a player doesn't lose 100% of the player as his replacement will be some % as good as him.

Posted By: usacanary, Feb 27, 11:53:06