The math(s)

Only increased the chances by 2.5%

If we assume the 5% market value is correct.

You can break it down between making the playoffs and winning the playoffs.

If we made the playoffs it would almost certainly be in 6th place maybe 5th at a lower distribution.
We would probably be an underdog to at least 2 of the 3 teams if not all three.
Our chances would be around 15% (25% if all teams were equal)

So the market is only giving us a 33% chance of making the playoffs.
Given how many games we have lost and goals we have shipped this season I think that seems about right.

Posted By: usacanary, Feb 15, 12:48:23