I know many world class professional gamblers.....

and they use a multi-tude of stats and analysis to make predictions.
xG is not one of them.

Even if you compare the exact same quality of chance.

Give the same quality of chance to Harry Kane and Adam Idah.

You would expect Kane to convert vastly more often than Adam.

Yet both teams will get the same xG

What xG does is actually overvalue poor teams and poor strikers.

Clearly there is a relationship between chances and goals but to make predictions on how good a team is you need better statistics.

I know this might be shocking (not) but League position and points is actually a pretty good indicator of how good a team is over a decent sample.

Posted By: usacanary, May 23, 15:20:59