Seems to be a more accurate assessment than the Monte Carlo analysis...

Monte Carlo - in my mind - is for integrating multiple probability density functions. Seems to be overcomplicatimg a pretty simple problem. We either play great, or we play s**t. We need to play great in 5 of the next 6 games. Then great in the following 3. Anything else and we don't get promotion.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat, Apr 8, 21:59:55