The math(s) of a possible NCFC promotion

8 games left = 24 points to play for.

Currently have 57 points

last 7 years the average points needed to make the top 6 is 72.42 points.

Lets look at the distribution.
69 or less points 0%
70 or less points 14.2%
71 or less points 57.1%
72 or less points 57.1%
73 or less points 57.1%
74 or less points 85.7%
75 or less points 85.7%
76 or less points 100%

2 PPG will get us to exactly 73 points
Our season average PPG is 1.5
Our PPG average under Wagner is 1.75

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation based on the remaining games (and the relative strength of the opponents)
and came up with 68.79 points
Considering our current odds of promotion are around 7/1 (probably closer to 9/1 real odds with the huge vig added)
Lets be generous and give us a 30% chance of promotion if we make the playoffs.(these would be close to the odds because if we do make the playoffs we would need a huge run of good form to get there)
The true odds the market is giving for Norwich to make the playoffs is around 36%
I have it slightly less at 28% (small samples and data sets so its not really that different)

Anyway here is the TLDR...

Will we make the playoffs.... probably not.

Will we get promoted?
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Posted By: usacanary, Mar 28, 17:10:05