Or they generally go behind in games

True expected goals are not independent from the score in a match. Teams chasing the game (particularly in leagues like the Champ where teams are relatively even in strength) typically create more when they are behind, than they do when scores are level or when they are in front.

Which can explain high XG but relatively low points. Likewise, low XG and high points can indicate a team that scores early and then tends to sit back and hang on.

Posted By: Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:38:52