I know - but I think that's why it can sometimes be misleading

the firms that are calculating their own XG to beat the bookies and which sell their data to professional teams (e.g. Smartodds) all evaluate the quality of the chance, not the quality of the final shot. They rate a shot from 30 yards is rated the same as a corner (i.e. not threatening). Whereas a 2v1 break or 3v2 break will generally be seen as a better opportunity, even if it fizzles out.

Ignoring great opportunities that don't finish in a shot means it doesn't necessarily reflect who had the better chances. For an extreme example, would you not give any XG for that Pires/Henry penalty against Leeds, just because it didn't result in a shot?

Posted By: Mecagoenti, Oct 22, 17:23:55