Well...

Ignoring Swansea for now, there are 15 games to go.

If we win 7 of our remaining games, we would be on 85 points and Brentford and Watford would likely need minimum equivalent 10 wins out of 15 to go above us.

I'd be surprised if they both win 3 games more than we do now.

Swansea have 2 extra games to win those additional games, so need min 10 from 17 but have just shipped 4 and have to squeeze the extra games in while we have our feet up.

We all have games against each other too.

Ultimately, I feel 88 points will clinch promotion as that would require both BF and WF to get at least 31 pts from final 15 games and Swans 32 from 17.

I haven't checked my working and am a yard of cider in but it's something like this.

We should still be targeting 2ppg so 92 points to win the league. That's 28pts from 15 games (min 9w, 1d) but for the others it is 35 from 15 (min 11w, 2d) or 36 from 17 (12w or 11w, 3d). Not impossible but unlikely.

Posted By: Jester, Feb 20, 21:34:29