Of course more points make some difference

I'm not suggesting otherwise. But bookies' odds tell you one thing - in what circumstances will they pay out, and how much. They reflect all sorts of things - the state of their knowledge (highly imperfect - much is not even public), their ability to predict the future (even more so), their desire to induce people to bet (very high), against their desire not to have to pay out more than they receive (also very high) - so including considerations of the market in which they operate for example, their own aversion to risk and so on. Yes, odds do tend to tell you "something" about the actual possibility of a certain event, but the idea that they tell you with mathematical precision (or even that such an approach is possible in principle to a football season, or any unknowable future event) is utter nonsense.

Posted By: paulg, Feb 18, 14:29:56