Hmmmm

Danone.

So peak R value early 2020 was about 3.0. With B117 strain 1.5 times as transmissible, returning to 'old normal' gives R=4.5.

Vaccinations will reduce that? Vaccinate all over 18s. 79% population. AZ said their vaccine reduces transmissibility by 67%. 4.5*0.79*0.67=2.38. This means even with everyone 18+ vaccinated our current strains are readily transmissible. We need lockdown/tiers to control transmission.

UK population = 67M. 53M over 18. Say 15 percent 18+ reject vaccines. 45 million need vaccination? 2 doses each. 90 million jabs total. 14 million done already. 76 million to go. 0.5 million per day. 152 days. Rate of vaccination increasing so say 4 months. Mid June? Everyone 18+ who wants a jab has 2 jabs. Start vaccinating against minor E484K South Africa strain.

Vaccine reduces probability of hospitalisation by circa 99% and death 99.9%. Predominantly those who have rejected vaccines will be dying. Will government introduce measures to protect those who decline vaccine or open economy? Open economy. Would the general public abide by rules to protect anti-vaxxers? Doubt it.

My cynical view is that at the start of next season, the majority of the population will be vaccinated, there will be a complete s**t storm about 'vaccine hesistant' death rate, particularly in BAME population. Getting the economy up and running will be a key objective. You might need a 2-jab vaccine certificate/app to get in to Carrow road but I'm pretty sure fiscal recovery will take precedence over the lives of those who don't fancy being vaccinated

Posted By: Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:11:57